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Three Cents Worth: The Miami Housing Trend Breakdown

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[This week, real estate appraiser, Curbed graph guru, blogger, and podcaster Jonathan Miller puts in another installation of his Three Cents Worth column, with his unique perspective on Miami's strange real estate market]

Miami has become a market with a lot of moving parts so it's best not to throw all the data into one bucket and call it a day. Last week Douglas Elliman released the 4 South Florida market reports I author for them including Miami and this week's charts were taken from data compiled in the report. I presented a bunch of metrics in the single family and condo market broken out by the distressed and non-distressed markets. Distressed property are defined here as short sales and foreclosures.

There's a lot here to digest but a few top line observations are:

Days on Market (number of days from last price change to contract date) The time to sell property has remained quite fast over the past few years, although distressed sales take about 2x as long as non-distressed listings. Marketing times for non-distressed listings are generally much faster here than in typical US cities. Days on market for distressed single family listings have continued to expand over the past 2 years.

Listing Discount (percent difference between list price at time of contract and sales price) The spread between buyers and sellers has continued to narrow over the past several years, reflecting a tightening housing market. There is a narrower range of negotiability that results in an actual sale. Distressed listings are now averaging a premium above list price - in other words the shortage of supply is causing the discount to revert to a premium - ie sales price averaging above list price.

Average Sales Price Price trends for non-distressed sales have been rising for several years with volatility reflecting seasonality. Interestingly, distressed sales trends have remained remarkably flat with no real seasonal patterns.

Sales Market Share Over the past three years, both the condo and single family markets have shifted from 2/3 distressed to 1/3 non-distressed. While 1/3 of the market remains foreclosures and short sales which is a very high level relative to the typical US city, the improvement has been surprising rapid.

Translation: Tight market.
· Matrix [Miller Samuel]
· Three Cents Worth archives [Curbed Miami]