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Miller: Miami's High-End Buyers Showing More Discretion

High-end buyers are pausing

Miller Samuel President Jonathan Miller (@JonathanMiller) unleashed the latest Elliman Report, covering the first quarter of 2016 in wake of late 2015's inevitable downshift in Miami's housing market.

Let's take an abbreviated look at the numbers and analysis of Miami Beach and Miami's coastal mainland, as provided by Miller. Head here for the full report.

Note: Metric comparisons are year over year

Miami Beach

  • Single family prices outperformed the condo market
  • Sales volume (-21%) continued to decline as inventory expanded, and days on the market rocketing to 97, up from 53
  • There was slower marketing time and increased negotiability (listing discount went from 4.5% to 8.8%)
  • There is an absence of leverage this cycle as lenders have continued to be wary of the market

Miami Coastal Mainland

  • Prices were generally up (median sales price increased by 7.4% to $260K) compared to the beach because of the latter's concentration of high-end housing
  • Sales are down (-17.5%) and inventory is up
  • Days on the market rose to 76 from 57
  • Listing inventory increased by over 15 percent

Miller's View

"The key drivers of the change in conditions for the mainland and beach continue to be the stronger dollar, less international buyers as their source countries continue to see weaker economic conditions and that this is an election year," Miller says. "The election is not about specifics -- parties, ideas, etc. It's about the uncertainty.

"Mortgage rates have trended lower since December when the Fed tried to get raises to rise but the outlook for the economy remains full of mixed messages -- I suspect the high end buyers, as they tend to be more discretionary in their purchases, are simply pausing until they can get their arms around the state of the economy."